Hi, all. I'm semi-local (I live in Indiana, outside of Indy, but I live close enough that I'm in Indy fairly regularly.) I proactively follow the science behind the outbreak, and I follow the Governor's briefings. I wanted to offer some context and perspective.
1. I don't particularly agree with our Governor's politics, but for the most part he's been reacting well to the pandemic. He closed us early, and his policies have mostly been based on sound advice and science. He's cautious when it comes to COVID-19, and so far has been willing to do what is necessary.
2. He has commented on the plan that is so often quoted, and on how he intends to implement it. He's said multiple times that the timetable is contingent on the numbers cooperating. He has stated repeatedly that if we open up and we spike, he will pause or reverse the plan. It's also notable that Marion County (Indy) is already on a 'delayed' version of the plan.
3. While I agree with many of his policies in regards to COVID-19, we've been opening for ten days now, and we jumped the gun. Indiana does not meet the Federal guidelines for reopening, even now.
4. The science is that our pulling throught this successfully depends on extensive 'smart actions' on the part of both the state and the public. The state will have to provide extensive testing and contact tracing. The public will need strong compliance with the various safety measures.
5. The state has stepped up both contact tracing and testing. We've yet to see how effectively the tracing implementation will be, but the testing is at about 25% of what's needed to manage the outbreak.
6. The Indiana populace is absolutely flaunting, ignoring, or outright acting contrary to safety measures as a means of protest. At the height of the lockdown we had, perhaps, 50% mask compliance. As soon as the recovery plan was announced, that dropped. I was in Indianapolis just a few days ago, and was in a couple of stores while I was there. I'd say mask compliance was - at best - 30%. Social distancing rules are outright ignored. Stores aren't enforcing their own policies, including masks. My wife works in the state park system here in the state and regularly sees very large groups (some 100+) packed close together in small spaces.
7. Marion County (Indianapolis) is one of the Midwest's hotspots, currently with 7,600+ cases and 420+ deaths. Only Detroit and Chicago have it worse. And the cases in both Marion County and Indiana as a whole are currently rising. The graph has reversed course and is creeping back up. Given that COVID-19 reporting trends at 10-14 days after exposure, and the state started opening back up 10 days ago, that's not a good sign.
8. If the Governor follows his pattern, the reopening plan is almost guaranteed to be delayed, and I would not be surprised at all if strict guidelines are still in place when GenCon is scheduled. Currently, GenCon takes place only four weeks after the final phase of the reopening plan begins. It won't take much of a hiccup for it to overlap the con.
No number here, because this bit isn't purely a local's perspective, but I love GenCon, and as a resident I recognize how important it is to the local economy. I really hope GenCon is able to go on and do so safely. But I'd be very, very cautious with my expectations. There are a lot of factors in play that are out of either GenCon's or Indiana's control, and the penalties to the die roll are adding up awfully fast. And it isn't just a question of whether GenCon is legally going to be allowed. It's also a question of whether companies and individuals from all over the world are going to be willing to gather in a COVID-19 hotspot just days after the restrictions are lifted. A lot simply will not risk it. A lot of individuals are not going to be able to afford it, given the economic impact of the past few months. They just won't risk thousand-dollar hotel reservations and time off work. And some companies may be from countries whose restrictions, including travel, may still be in place.
I hope there is a GenCon, and that it's safe, and I hope to be there. But there are a lot of factors, and there is a lot of risk. And while tabletop gaming (in all its forms) is who I am, I'm not willing place a hobby above human lives. And if things haven't settled down before the end of July, that's exactly what I'd be doing. So I'll keep my dice in their bags and ready to go, but I'm keeping my plans fluid and my investment minimal.