Unique attendees number?
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Posted by noone bonham
#51

bonham wrote:
watchdog wrote:There's no way unique attendance could go up 25% (from 60 to 75K) and only go up 4% in turnstile. 

Yes, there is. More single day badges. Which is what people had to buy when four day badges sold out.Four day pass = 1 Unique attendee but 4 turnstiles.
One day pass = 1 Unique attendee and 1 turnstile.
There's also the fact that 'turnstile' means each time you went into the hall, which would likely be multiple times per day.  So if the four day pass person went in and out twice that's 8 times, while if the one day pass person did that it's only 2 times.
no turnstile is if you buy a one day badge you are one turnstile attendee if you buy a 4 day badge you are four turnstile attendee.  They don't count in and out either at the doors of the con or the dealers hall.  No where do you see any one with clickers counting

Posted by trace_sl noone
#52

miked wrote:
bonham wrote:
watchdog wrote:There's no way unique attendance could go up 25% (from 60 to 75K) and only go up 4% in turnstile. 

Yes, there is. More single day badges. Which is what people had to buy when four day badges sold out.Four day pass = 1 Unique attendee but 4 turnstiles.
One day pass = 1 Unique attendee and 1 turnstile.
There's also the fact that 'turnstile' means each time you went into the hall, which would likely be multiple times per day.  So if the four day pass person went in and out twice that's 8 times, while if the one day pass person did that it's only 2 times.
no turnstile is if you buy a one day badge you are one turnstile attendee if you buy a 4 day badge you are four turnstile attendee.  They don't count in and out either at the doors of the con or the dealers hall.  No where do you see any one with clickers counting

Yes you do, they were clicking Thursday morning at the opening of the Dealer Hall.  That was the only time I saw it and don't know how long they did it but they were counting. 

Yea, the numbers look wacky 52,000 4 day badges gives you the 208,000 turnstile, that number just does not look like a sell out number to me.  Then 10,000 single day badges to get you to 62,000 badges, 18,000 to 70,000, which is only 4,500 average single day badges.  We will never know the breakdown. 

Posted by mhayward1978 trace_sl
#53

trace_sl wrote:
miked wrote:
bonham wrote:
watchdog wrote:There's no way unique attendance could go up 25% (from 60 to 75K) and only go up 4% in turnstile. 

Yes, there is. More single day badges. Which is what people had to buy when four day badges sold out.Four day pass = 1 Unique attendee but 4 turnstiles.
One day pass = 1 Unique attendee and 1 turnstile.
There's also the fact that 'turnstile' means each time you went into the hall, which would likely be multiple times per day.  So if the four day pass person went in and out twice that's 8 times, while if the one day pass person did that it's only 2 times.
no turnstile is if you buy a one day badge you are one turnstile attendee if you buy a 4 day badge you are four turnstile attendee.  They don't count in and out either at the doors of the con or the dealers hall.  No where do you see any one with clickers counting

Yes you do, they were clicking Thursday morning at the opening of the Dealer Hall.  That was the only time I saw it and don't know how long they did it but they were counting. Yea, the numbers look wacky 52,000 4 day badges gives you the 208,000 turnstile, that number just does not look like a sell out number to me.  Then 10,000 single day badges to get you to 62,000 badges, 18,000 to 70,000, which is only 4,500 average single day badges.  We will never know the breakdown. 

I think we do know the breakdown, under these assumptions:

1. Every badge sold is a "unique attendee."

2. Every 1 day badge is 1 "turnstile attendee." (Including extra names entered on Sunday Family Fun Day badges).

3. Every 4 day badge is 4 "turnstile attendees."

Then it's simple:

x is the number of one day badges sold
y is the number of four day badges sold

u is the number of unique attendees
t is the number of turnstile attendees

then:

x+y = u
x+4y = t

And since we know u and t, we can calculate x and y:
y = (t-u)/3
x = (4u-t)/3

2017: Turnstile 207,979, Unique "approximately 60,000".  I'm going to assume the unique attendance was less than 60,819 because "approximately 60,000" sounds a lot better than "two consecutive years of declining unique attendance."  Let's call it 60,000.
http://www.gencon.com/press/gencon50

2016: Turnstile 201,852, Unique 60,819
http://www.gencon.com/press/postshowrelease

2015: Turnstile 197,695, Unique 61,423
http://www.gencon.com/press/2015postshow

Badge breakdown under these assumptions:

Year - 4 day - 1 day 
2017 - 49,326 - 10,673
2016 - 47,011 - 13,808
2015 - 45,421 - 15,999

There were not 75,000 unique attendees.  With all due respect to Frank Mentzer, he's not a Gen Con employee and there is no reason to think he would have attendance information that contradicts what Gen Con themselves posted in their press release.  It is implausible that Gen Con would not have mentioned a record setting unique attendance figure if it had happened.

 

Posted by braewe
#54

As a demo agent for catalyst I can tell you there were DEFINITELY clickers counting each of the four doors that were directly in front of the catalyst booth and they did so each and every day including Sunday. We even heard the instructions. However...I don't think they continued clicking after the first twenty minutes or so. Then again by then I was busy and my attention elsewhere. 

When they first opened the doors they had folks counting one per door. One click per person. I will also day this was my first year seeing the mass of humanity from the INSIDE and it was pretty something. What I really didn't see though we're people running. 

I also found an article that had unique attendance at 75000 for some religious convention a few years ago. They too complained about hotel overflow to the suburbs and beyond. So I don't see how max attendance could be 60,000 from a fire marshal standpoint.

Posted by noone
#55

But remember the fire Marshall cap isn't just attendees but also gencon staff, convention center staff, volunteers and all the dealer hall people.  As for clickers I didn't see any for vig early access or any other time I went in the dealers hall.  But then I avoid the first hour or so and go in around noon.

Posted by matthias9 mhayward1978
#56

mhayward1978 wrote:
trace_sl wrote:
miked wrote:
bonham wrote:
watchdog wrote:There's no way unique attendance could go up 25% (from 60 to 75K) and only go up 4% in turnstile. 

Yes, there is. More single day badges. Which is what people had to buy when four day badges sold out.Four day pass = 1 Unique attendee but 4 turnstiles.
One day pass = 1 Unique attendee and 1 turnstile.
There's also the fact that 'turnstile' means each time you went into the hall, which would likely be multiple times per day.  So if the four day pass person went in and out twice that's 8 times, while if the one day pass person did that it's only 2 times.
no turnstile is if you buy a one day badge you are one turnstile attendee if you buy a 4 day badge you are four turnstile attendee.  They don't count in and out either at the doors of the con or the dealers hall.  No where do you see any one with clickers counting

Yes you do, they were clicking Thursday morning at the opening of the Dealer Hall.  That was the only time I saw it and don't know how long they did it but they were counting. Yea, the numbers look wacky 52,000 4 day badges gives you the 208,000 turnstile, that number just does not look like a sell out number to me.  Then 10,000 single day badges to get you to 62,000 badges, 18,000 to 70,000, which is only 4,500 average single day badges.  We will never know the breakdown. 

I think we do know the breakdown, under these assumptions:1. Every badge sold is a "unique attendee."
2. Every 1 day badge is 1 "turnstile attendee." (Including extra names entered on Sunday Family Fun Day badges).
3. Every 4 day badge is 4 "turnstile attendees."
Then it's simple:
x is the number of one day badges sold
y is the number of four day badges sold
u is the number of unique attendees
t is the number of turnstile attendees
then:
x+y = u
x+4y = t
And since we know u and t, we can calculate x and y:
y = (t-u)/3
x = (4u-t)/3
2017: Turnstile 207,979, Unique "approximately 60,000".  I'm going to assume the unique attendance was less than 60,819 because "approximately 60,000" sounds a lot better than "two consecutive years of declining unique attendance."  Let's call it 60,000.
http://www.gencon.com/press/gencon50
2016: Turnstile 201,852, Unique 60,819
http://www.gencon.com/press/postshowrelease
2015: Turnstile 197,695, Unique 61,423
http://www.gencon.com/press/2015postshow
Badge breakdown under these assumptions:
Year - 4 day - 1 day 
2017 - 49,326 - 10,673
2016 - 47,011 - 13,808
2015 - 45,421 - 15,999
There were not 75,000 unique attendees.  With all due respect to Frank Mentzer, he's not a Gen Con employee and there is no reason to think he would have attendance information that contradicts what Gen Con themselves posted in their press release.  It is implausible that Gen Con would not have mentioned a record setting unique attendance figure if it had happened.
 

I really like what you are saying here.  However, for the part that I have bolded, I would submit that an alternate explanation is, for example, that the unique count was something like 64,000 but that they did not announce that fact because they had assured the Fire Marshall that they would cap it at "about 60,000".

I certainly do not know that my hypothesis is true.  But, I think the fact that they have not released a unique visitor count this year (despite doing so in previous years) could mean that.  It could also be your explanation.  But, Gen Con has had attendance declines in the past.  Something like 8 times in the past 20 years.  This feels different.

Posted by jzilla noone
#57

miked wrote:
But remember the fire Marshall cap isn't just attendees but also gencon staff, convention center staff, volunteers and all the dealer hall people.  As for clickers I didn't see any for vig early access or any other time I went in the dealers hall.  But then I avoid the first hour or so and go in around noon.

All early access individuals needed an event ticket to gain entry so they could count the tickets collected. I find it interesting braewe's comment about the "clicker people" stopping the clicking after about 20 minutes. This makes me think the clicking was to ensure the DH itself never exceeded fire code. Once the consumer tsunami abated, I think they used some sort of fancy math (i.e. traffic heuristics) to know that they were okay to stop counting. I can't think of an alternative reason to stop counting after a certain point. This is purely anecdotal evidence, but I also noticed the clickers in the morning and in the subsequent times I returned to the DH throughout the day they had stopped clicking. This is such a mystery! Maybe Gen Con is starting an ARG and this is how we start the game (with conspiracy and conjecture)! haha

Posted by andrewj.rager
#58

I believe all of our questions can be solved by using... wait for it...

A Random Number Generator!!!!

2017 Unique Attendance = 58006 (Used 55K-65K)

All hail RNG!

Posted by bonham noone
#59

no turnstile is if you buy a one day badge you are one turnstile attendee if you buy a 4 day badge you are four turnstile attendee.  They don't count in and out either at the doors of the con or the dealers hall.  No where do you see any one with clickers counting

Except that... we did. See people with clickers.

The only 'fact' anyone has here is that they do not know and are guessing.  I've seen sources, far more credible than anyone here, put the number over 70k.  Anyone trying to say turnstile attendance answers the question has no idea what they are talking about.  There is no static correlation between badges sold and turnstile numbers since no one knows how many one day vs four day passes sold or how many times those people went into, out of, and back into the hall.

Let's assume your 75k unique attendance estimate is correct.  If the first 60K people had the identical number of four day and single day badges as in 2016, there's no way an additional 15K of attendees could raise the turnstile only 4 percent. Even if all 15K bought a single day badge, that would still result in a turnstile increase of over seven percent (15K/210K).
So the only way turnstile could only increase 4% iwhile increasing unique attendees 25% would be as Parody mentioned: you'd need to see a big decrease in four day badge sales compared to 2016. But you already rejected that scenario with your "monkeys flying out of your butt" comment.

You seem to be confusing comments I've made with ones others must have made or you're trying to claim I said things I have not because, firstly, I did not state such a number (75k) as 'the' number, only that the only seemingly credible estimate that came from a GenCon source may have verified that was the cap.  I have said I do not believe, for a moment, the number was lower than previous years.

You also mistakenly believe badges sold has a static correlation to turnstile numbers.  It doesn't.  You do not know how many times each person went in and out and we have verified, via multiple people here, they were counting.  I've been to the con many times, hell I worked it when I worked at WotC, and I've always seen people at the door with count clickers.  Additionally, if unique attendees DID correlate to a static turnstile number the unique attendees and turnstile numbers for each year would have an easily discernible mathematical formula that would result in an exact, predictable number between the two each year... which is not the case.

What are you on about? 4 day badges sold out, and they were still selling Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday badges at that time.
Are you unaware of this?

You must, indeed, need to read my posts more carefully as I commented, previous to your reply, that four day badges sold out (and one day badges were then all that was available at that point).
When Gen Con stopped selling 4 day badges, which day among Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday could not accommodate further attendees?
If your answer is "none of them" - then it proves Gen Con stopped selling 4 day badges before attendance limited them.

It could be any of them.  It's pretty common sense that there was likely a daily cap that was a combined number of four and single day badges.  When they hit the cap for four day badges they stopped selling them and people then had to buy single day badges, for whatever days those were still available.
If your answer is "X-day" - then how do you account for the fact that Gen Con was still selling 1 day badges for X-day?

The single day badges would have sold out independently of each other and the daily cap would likely be a combined number, as I said above.  I don't understand your point.  You seem to think these two comments contradict each other?  How?

Posted by roderick
#60

Okay, no need to start doing point-by-point posts - that way lies madness.

And remember to keep it civil. 

Roderick Robertson
Forum Coordinator 
Gen Con, LLC. 

Posted by mhayward1978 bonham
#61

bonham wrote:
no turnstile is if you buy a one day badge you are one turnstile attendee if you buy a 4 day badge you are four turnstile attendee.  They don't count in and out either at the doors of the con or the dealers hall.  No where do you see any one with clickers counting

Except that... we did. See people with clickers.The only 'fact' anyone has here is that they do not know and are guessing.  I've seen sources, far more credible than anyone here, put the number over 70k.  Anyone trying to say turnstile attendance answers the question has no idea what they are talking about.  There is no static correlation between badges sold and turnstile numbers since no one knows how many one day vs four day passes sold or how many times those people went into, out of, and back into the hall.=inheritIt could be any of them.  It's pretty common sense that there was likely a daily cap that was a combined number of four and single day badges.  When they hit the cap for four day badges they stopped selling them and people then had to buy single day badges, for whatever days those were still available.
WRT to total unique attendance, Gen Con has announced themselves in press releases that the number of unique attendees was "an approximate attendance of 60,000 attendees."

Given that:
a. Gen Con announced the exact record setting turnstile attendance in 2017
b. Gen Con has announced exact unique attendance records for years when it was record setting (2015)
c. Over 70,000 unique attendees would have not only been record setting, but exceeded the prior record by over 10%

It is completely implausible that there were over 70,000 attendees and yet Gen Con is lying to the public in their press releases and passing up the opportunity to market a new record.

What are your "far more credible sources" than Gen Con's own press releases that the actual number was over 70,000?
 

Posted by mhayward1978 bonham
#62

bonham wrote:
When Gen Con stopped selling 4 day badges, which day among Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday could not accommodate further attendees?
If your answer is "none of them" - then it proves Gen Con stopped selling 4 day badges before attendance limited them.

It could be any of them.  It's pretty common sense that there was likely a daily cap that was a combined number of four and single day badges.  When they hit the cap for four day badges they stopped selling them and people then had to buy single day badges, for whatever days those were still available.
If your answer is "X-day" - then how do you account for the fact that Gen Con was still selling 1 day badges for X-day?

The single day badges would have sold out independently of each other and the daily cap would likely be a combined number, as I said above.  I don't understand your point.  You seem to think these two comments contradict each other?  How?

Perhaps we are in agreement here.

My point is only this:

Some people seem to be advocating a position similar to: "The 4 day badge sell out of Gen Con was because attendance had reached the maximum safe amount, and further attendees would have caused safety concerns and possibly resulted in intervention by civic authorities such as the fire marshal."  This position may briefly be expressed as "attendance was the sole reason why 4 day badges sold out."

My point is that that position can not be correct, as there was a point in time where 4-day badges were sold out, but badges for any individual day were available.  

This demonstrates that Gen Con did not believe at the time they stopped selling 4 day badges that attendance on any given day had reached a maximum safe amount, and that further attendees an any given day would cause safety concerns and result in intervention by the fire marshal.

Your idea that:

"It's pretty common sense that there was likely a daily cap that was a combined number of four and single day badges.  When they hit the cap for four day badges they stopped selling them and people then had to buy single day badges, for whatever days those were still available."

Is, I think, pretty much correct.  The implication of that is that Gen Con stopped selling 4 day badges because they had some preferred mix of 4 and 1 day badges, not because selling further 4 day badges would have jeopardized attendee safety or resulted in being shut down by the fire marshal.

Posted by braewe roderick
#63

roderick wrote:
Okay, no need to start doing point-by-point posts - that way lies madness.
And remember to keep it civil. 
Roderick Robertson
Forum Coordinator 
Gen Con, LLC. 
Tsk tsk. It's that loooong time between the end of con and any new announcements that matter to us attendees. /OF course/ we are going to take it point by point. But I think we shall be polite. :D

I wonder when the next 'gen con should move now that we have capped' post will happen!

Posted by helenbb mhayward1978
#64

[This post has been removed]

Posted by lore seeker helenbb
#65

helenbb wrote:
mhayward1978 wrote:Your idea that:
"It's pretty common sense that there was likely a daily cap that was a combined number of four and single day badges.  When they hit the cap for four day badges they stopped selling them and people then had to buy single day badges, for whatever days those were still available."

Is, I think, pretty much correct.  The implication of that is that Gen Con stopped selling 4 day badges because they had some preferred mix of 4 and 1 day badges, not because selling further 4 day badges would have jeopardized attendee safety or resulted in being shut down by the fire marshal.


What would be interesting is if GenCon, like San Diego Comic Con and New York Comic Con, went to the model of selling ONLY single-day badges.  

Oh God-Emperor no.

Posted by austicke helenbb
#66

helenbb wrote:What would be interesting is if GenCon, like San Diego Comic Con and New York Comic Con, went to the model of selling ONLY single-day badges.  

Interesting or horrifying?

____________________________________________________
Alec Usticke, Unofficial Gen Con Indy Facebook Discussion Group

Posted by lore seeker austicke
#67

austicke wrote:
helenbb wrote:What would be interesting is if GenCon, like San Diego Comic Con and New York Comic Con, went to the model of selling ONLY single-day badges.  

Interesting or horrifying?____________________________________________________
Alec Usticke, Unofficial Gen Con Indy Facebook Discussion Group

"Interesting" in the Chinese curse sense, maybe.

Posted by garhkal
#68

I'd hate it if they only went to single day badges..

Posted by nascragman
#69

How much does a single-day badge cost?  Because I only really use three days.  I'm too tired by Sunday to do anything worthwhile.  The most i ever do is stroll the exhibit area a bit

Posted by austicke nascragman
#70

nascragman wrote:How much does a single-day badge cost?

In 2017, the pre-registration price was $55 per day. Family Fun Day (Sunday) was $45 for up to four people. That compares to a 4-day badge at $90.

____________________________________________________
Alec Usticke, Unofficial Gen Con Indy Facebook Discussion Group

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